Tropical Storm THREE Advisory Mi, 12.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
256 NM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND
DEVELOPED WELL DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES WHICH ARE WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH MODERATE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
PGTW, KNES AND RJTD FIX POSITIONS AND A 121642Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH DEPICTED THE SYMMETRICAL CORE CONVECTION, SHALLOW OUTER
BANDS AND A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
30 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A
121145Z ASCAT-B PASS WHICH INDICATED WINDS OF 25-30 KTS, SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) FROM KNES AND RJTD,
AND T1.5 FROM PGTW (25 KTS). ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND WARM (30C) SSTS. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR
IS THE LACK OF A STRONG OUTFLOW MECHANISM ALOFT. JTWC UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY SMALL POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, BUT
ONLY VERY WEAK CHANNELS TO POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD. TD 03W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM.
   B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48,
ALONG THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR.
THEREAFTER, AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE, IT WILL SHIFT TO A SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AS IT COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER-
LEVEL FLOW. FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS, WARM SSTS AND MARGINAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
40 KTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF MINDANAO. AFTER
LANDFALL TD 03W WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND DUE TO TERRAIN
INTERACTION. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL REEMERGE OVER WATER BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
PALAWAN AND INTO THE SULU SEA, INCREASING VWS AND INDUCING CONVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE NO LATER
THAN TAU 72 IN THE SULU SEA, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF DISSIPATION AS EARLY AS
TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH MINIMAL SPREAD
THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN, AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS
NOT HANDLING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE COMPACT SYSTEM WELL, WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, IN LARGE PART ESTIMATED BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, WHICH
ARE NOT EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED IN THE MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE, RESULTING
IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN