Tropical Storm SURIGAE Advisory Do, 15.04.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING
NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 142111Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS
AVERAGED BETWEEN THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS FROM
PGTW AND T3.0/45KTS FROM RJTD AND ALSO THE OBJECTIVE ADT OF
T3.3/51KTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST
DUAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. TS 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR
AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, REACHING 95 KTS BY TAU
72. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 36 AND
TAU 72 DUE TO THE CONSISTENT SHEAR AND PRESSURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF TS 02W. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
DECREASE IN THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO 130NM AT TAU 72 LENDING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH NORTH OF THE STR WILL BEGIN
TO DEEPEN, CAUSING A BREAK IN STR. ONCE THE STR BREAKS, TS SURIGAE
WILL BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD, TRACKING AROUND EASTERN PORTION OF THE
RIDGE. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE AND BRING TS 02W TO A
PEAK OF 115KTS AT TAU 96 AND WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AFTERWARDS AS COOLER
SST PREVAIL. NUMERICAL MODEL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD HAS DECREASED TO
250NM AT TAU 120 OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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