Tropical Storm MERBOK Advisory Do, 15.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 15W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 018 //
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 018
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z --- NEAR 36.7N 164.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 33 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 36.7N 164.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 43.2N 168.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 42 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 50.5N 174.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 38.3N 165.5E.
15SEP22. TYPHOON 15W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM
NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 33 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT WHILE TY 15W RETAINS A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE
IS BEGINNING TO ELONGATE AND ERODE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A
FRONT BEARING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FEATURE, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450NM TO THE
NORTHWEST, MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS A RENDEZVOUS WITH TY
15W. THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT HAS
NOW MOVED UNDER THE RIGHT REAR REGION OF A STRONG 100-PLUS KNOT JET
MAX AND IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS DUE TO STRONG
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE, WHILE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE, IN LINE WITH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FIX DATA. EVEN
WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN ETT, THE VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC FORCING AND
PRESENCE OF A STING JET IN THE LOWER LEVELS, MEANS THAT IT WILL
MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS A MINIMAL TYPHOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING
80 KNOTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE REGION OF THE STING JET, THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. ETT WILL BE VERY
RAPID IN THIS SCENARIO, AS THE SYSTEM IS SCREAMING TO THE NORTH AT
OVER 35 KNOTS AND THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO A HURRICANE FORCE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW, WITH A DRAMATICALLY EXPANDING WIND FIELD, WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150000Z IS 35 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (MUIFA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W
(NANMADOL) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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