Tropical Storm FOUR Advisory Fr, 19.08.

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042022
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure
area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become better
organized during the last 24 h, and reports from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate winds near 30 kt.
However, both the aircraft and scatterometer data show that
the disturbance does not yet have a well-defined circulation
center.  Since the system is likely to develop further and make
landfall as a tropical storm in less than 36 h, advisories are
being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four with Tropical
Storm Warnings being issued for portions of the coasts of
northeastern Mexico and south Texas.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/12.  The disturbance
is on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge, and a general
northwest motion should continue until the system moves inland over
northeastern Mexico.  The track guidance is tightly clustered, and
the forecast track lies close to the various consensus models.

The disturbance is in an environment of light westerly vertical
shear, and this should continue until landfall.  This should allow
continued development until the system reaches the coast, and the
official intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 40 kt
near landfall.  It should be noted, though, that the global models
do not develop the system significantly before landfall, and if
they are correct any development could be slower than currently
forecast.  The system will weaken after landfall, and by 60 h it
is forecast to be absorbed into a larger low pressure area forming
over western and northern Texas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued.

2. Rains from the system may begin to affect the eastern coast of
Mexico from northern Veracruz into southern Tamaulipas tonight into
early Saturday.  This rainfall may produce life threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.  Rain from this system may move into far
south Texas during the day on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 20.7N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  20/0600Z 22.0N  95.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  20/1800Z 23.8N  96.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 25.6N  98.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  21/1800Z 27.1N  99.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven