Tropical Storm MUIFA Advisory Mi, 07.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.5N 135.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 696 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, WHICH
IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI ALSO
SHOWS EXTENSIVE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. A 062137Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A BROAD LLCC POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A
CURVED SPIRAL BAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 070023Z ASCAT-B IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS AN
ELONGATED BUT DEFINED CENTER WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW, KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES AND ASCAT DATA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, IMPROVING EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 062138Z
   CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 062350Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 14W IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE WEST, AND WILL GRADUALLY TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12.
THE STR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST AND REALIGN TO THE
NORTH WHICH WILL TURN THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120. A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG OVER
EASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 96, WHICH COULD DRIVE THE SYSTEM MORE
NORTHWESTWARD. TS 14W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 WITH
RAPID INTENSIFICATION LIKELY FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48 AS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WARM SST (30-31C) AND
VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR (IMPROVED)
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE SPREAD OF 230-
300NM FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 120. THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS ARE AFUM, EGRR AND
UEMN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE, AND AEMN ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE. THE STATISTICALLY BETTER VORTEX TRACKERS (ECMWF, EEMN
AND AVNO) ARE CLUSTERED CLOSELY TOGETHER AND INDICATE A TRACK TOWARD
THE ISHIGAKI-JIMA REGION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO THESE TRACKERS AND IS POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE BULK OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) SOLUTIONS SUPPORT
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE. THE
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS A
RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE WITH HWRF INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY
NEAR 123 KNOTS AND COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120
KNOTS, SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS PEAK OF 105 KNOTS.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE IS TRIGGERED LENDING ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT TO THE IMMINENT RI PHASE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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