Tropical Storm TRASES Advisory Mo, 01.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (TRASES)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 32.6N 127.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 199 NM SOUTH OF KUNSAN AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 20 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT 45-50NM TO THE SOUTH. MSI ALSO INDICATES
THE TWO SYSTEMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE OUTER LOW-LEVEL
BANDING (NORTHWEST OF CHEJU-DO) BEGINNING TO CONVERGE AND FRAGMENT.
THE TRACK MOTION OF BOTH SYSTEMS IS ALSO ALTERED WITH TD 06W NOW
QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE TD 07W IS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF TD 06W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE MARGINAL WITH CONVERGENT FLOW NORTH OF 07W LIMITING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND INTERACTION WITH LAND OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS SUSTAINING SOME DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON WIND DATA FROM BUOY
22187 (33.1N 127.0E), WHICH REPORTED 25-33 KNOTS AS THE CENTER PASSED
ABOUT 10-15 NM WEST FROM 010000Z TO 010100Z. ADDITIONALLY, RECENT
ASCAT INDICATED 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A LARGE
SWATH OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS THE LOW-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST BUT ALSO
INFLUENCED BY BINARY INTERACTION WITH TD 06W
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: INTERACTION WITH LAND AND BINARY INTERACTION
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 07W IS UNDERGOING BINARY INTERACTION WITH
TD 06W, WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 190NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF TD 07W'S
010200Z POSITION. THE TWO SYSTEMS ARE EQUAL IN INTENSITY AND ARE
FAIRLY COMPACT SYSTEMS, HOWEVER, TD 06W HAS MAINTAINED A STRONGER,
MORE DOMINANT PRESSURE FIELD. THEREFORE, TD 07W IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TD 06W
THROUGH TAU 12 THEN TURN POLEWARD AS IT GETS ABSORBED AND
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TD 06W. INTERACTION WITH
LAND WILL ALSO SERVE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS CHEJU-DO AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH KOREA. DUE TO THESE
FACTAORS, TD 07W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN QUICKLY WITH DISSIPATION
BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DESPITE THE COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH TD 06W, THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT INDICATING A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24. THE 311800Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) ALSO INDICATES A SIMILAR SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS,
THEREFORE, THERE IS MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH PEAK
INTENSITY LIMITED, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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